DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/06 10:58
Beans, Wheat Lower at Midday
Corn is narrowly mixed, soybeans are 2 to 3 cents lower, and wheat is 5 to
10 cents lower.
David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is flat with the Dow up 9 points. The dollar index is
5 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are narrowly
mixed. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher with gold up $16.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed in quiet midday trade with action still working
to build back from the fresh lows scored Tuesday. Ethanol margins are stable
short term with flat and gasoline demand edging higher. Basis has remained
fairly flat in recent days, with isolated pockets of pre-harvest strength for
now. Weather looks to remain non-threatening. Weekly export sales were strong
at 101,600 metric tons of old crop, and 2.6 million of new. On the September
contract, trade continues to have resistance at the 20-day at $3.22, with chart
support at the lower Bollinger Band at $3.07.
Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade battling between
good demand and good weather with another 126,000 metric tons booked to China.
Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 lower and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. The ral remains
at the upper point of the recent range vs. the dollar, which should keep new
crop interest robust for now. Weather looks to continue to be good for most
into podfill. Weekly export sales were ok at 345,200 of old crop, and 1.41
million of new crop, with meal strong at 328,300 for old crop, and 203,900 of
new, with oil 24,400 of old, and 11,100 of new. The September chart now has
resistance at the 20-day at 8.90 which we are pulling back from, and support
the lower Bollinger Band at 8.70.
Wheat trade is 5 to 10 cents with trade Chicago action retaking the lead at
midday. The ruble is holding vs. the dollar as well with more Middle East
tenders being scheduled. Spring wheat harvest should build momentum with Canada
production estimates being revised higher. Kansas City is at a 89-cent discount
to Chicago with spreads back to the top end of the range, while Minneapolis is
back to a 13 cent discount with slight strength in the intermonth spreads.
Export sales remained in the recent range at 605,500 metric tons. Kansas City
September chart support is the fresh low at $4.16 1/4, with the 20-day back
above the market as nearby resistance at $4.43.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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